State regulation and administration of human capital development in war and post-war conditions

Abstract

During the war, the development of human potential has acquired the status of a key problem in terms of socio-economic stability for Ukraine, resulting in analysis and reflections on what is happening and how to overcome it. This is a relevant subject because of the massive demographic losses, educational shortcomings and structural changes in the labor market that the country faces as part of its long-term prospects for recovery. Effective state policy and digital tools to foster human potential are especially important within the context of these processes. The purpose is to determine the main trends of change in Ukraine’s human capital during war and postwar time, their impact on labor market and education system. The methodological foundation was the generalization of data from official statistics, a comparative analysis of the dynamics of indicators for 2019–2024, and structural-logical modeling. The outcome witnessed a stark decline of the human capital index, reduction in the working age population, an increase in the IDP figure as well as a drop in employment rate; all pointing to a deepening of socio-economic instability. It has been shown that the worst problems are associated with destruction of educational infrastructure, inequality in access to digital resources and the increase of psychosocial risks preventing an influx of competencies in future generations. At the same time, the possibility of digitalization and new educational models as counter-factors which could maintain human capital activities under a limited-resource regime has also been profiled. Institutional competencies of public policy in the labour market, social protection and regional development areas have been studied providing a diagnosis of the most effective ones. The impact of the results in practice can manifest in a new approach to the development of post-war recovery programs, retraining programs and creation of regional competences centers and digital infrastructure modernization for the human resources management.