Конфліктогенність афгансько-пакистанських відносин за президентства

Abstract

У статті здійснено аналіз динаміки конфліктогенності афгансько-пакистанських відносин за президентства А. Гані, яка залежить від наступних чинників: 1) традиційні загрози – прикордонне питання та проблема Пуштуністану; 2) «нетрадиційні» загрози – питання біженців, наркотрафіку та фінансування тероризму; 3) постафганське врегулювання як у форматі Афганістан-«Талібан»-Пакистан, так і під впливом зовнішніх сил – США, Китаю та Індії. Автори дійшли висновку щодо залежності пакистансько-афганської взаємодії від рівня довіри між державами, ефективності подолання загроз безпеці та впливу інших держав. The article attempts to analyze the dynamics of conflict nature in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations during the presidency of A. Ghani, which depends primarily on the implementation of security threats. The conflictofenic nature of the relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan can be discovered by several factors. Firstly, traditional threats to the security of the states are based on two issues – the Pashtun issue (the «Greater Pashtunistan» project may violate the territorial integrity of both states) and the unresolved passage of the Afghan-Pakistani border (non-recognition of the border by Afghanistan and the construction of a wall by Pakistan as its recognition). Secondly, non-traditional threats such as the problem of refugees, drug trafficking and terrorism. If the refugee issue is in some way as Pakistan’s pressure on Afghanistan through the process of forced repatriation, it has been found that countering drug trafficking and terrorism have facilitated cooperation between the governments of the two countries. Thirdly, main change in bilateral relations depends on the negotiation processes and Post-Afghan settlement with the intervention of third States in this difficult situation (US, China, India). A peaceful settlement is implemented by Afghanistan-Taliban-Pakistan negotiation with US participation as well. Taliban do not support the Kabul government, do not want to submit to US conditions, do not recognize their activities as terrorist. In turn, Pakistan, in line with Afghanistan’s position, supports the Taliban, that reduces the level of trust between states. The authors concluded that Afghan-Pakistan cooperation under the Presidency of Ashraf Ghani has a certain constructivism in the negotiations and political dialog. However, Afghanistan continues to depend on the influence of other states, including Pakistan, and needs attempts to negotiate not only from one side and to be more independent.