Ісламська Республіка Пакистан у системі регіональної безпеки (1998–2016 рр.)

Abstract

Дисертаційну роботу присвячено комплексному дослідженню Ісламської Республіки Пакистан у системі регіональної безпеки. Визначено основні характеристики Південноазійської системи безпеки із застосуванням «незахідних» теорій міжнародних відносин, які обґрунтовують постколоніальне минуле держав регіону та особливості їхнього внутрішньополітичного розвитку. Доведено, що із набуттям «де-факто» ядерного статусу у 1998 р. Пакистан стає державоюджерелом змін регіонального безпекового середовища. Сучасні зовнішньополітичний курс та регіональні пріоритети Пакистану стали детермінантами у структуруванні трансформаційних етапів розвитку системи безпеки у Південній Азії. Значна увага приділяється відносинам Пакистану із центросиловими державами США та КНР, які започатковують тенденцію до поляризації системи регіональної безпеки через утворення союзів – Пакистан-КНР, Індія-США. Thesis provides a complex research of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan in the regional security system. The main characteristics of South Asian security system is considered by «non-Western» international relations theories. South Asian regionalism bases on the security factor with post-colonial states’ heritage, specific features of their domestic development that dominated by interstate conflicts and a significant number of security threats. Pakistan takes an important role in the regional security environment accumulating all characteristics named previously. Pakistan acquired de facto nuclear status in 1998. This event determined a state as a source of changes in the regional security environment and allowed to structure transformation stages of South Asian security system. The Pakistani-Indian nuclear confrontation creates a situation of asymmetry in the region, implementing a competition between country as a candidate for regional leadership (Pakistan) and a country that claims to global leadership (India). As a result, institutional mechanism of cooperation among regional states (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) is subordinated by dynamics of PakistaniIndian contacts. Internal characteristics play a significant role in determining Pakistan’s foreign policy objectives. The problems of internal stability in the country are defined as follows: the existence of different ethnic groups, the lack of a common society identity, dualistic nature of the government that affect both civilian and military, the existence of ethnic conflicts and terrorist organizations. It is appropriate to characterize Pakistan using such categories as «weak» and «garrison» state. The weakness of Pakistan has a political nature, in which the government does not enjoy the full confidence of the people, but army has a crucial influence on foreign policy decisions. That is why a country inherent state of «garrison» which creates conditions for increasing of nuclear arms race and Pakistani-Indian conflict. As a result, modern foreign policy and regional priorities of Pakistan are based on a combination of political situation in the country, significant influence of military establishment on it, traditional and «non-traditional» threats to national security. Effect of nuclear factor and territorial conflicts in Pakistani relations with India and Afghanistan in the region creates a conditional axis «Pashtunistan-Kashmir». At the same time, Pakistan acquires the status of «middle» state, having to respond simultaneously on two threats to its territorial integrity. Pakistani-Indian conflict over Kashmir connects with nuclear factor as traditional threat for South Asian security system. By the way, Pashtunistan issue depends on spreading «non-traditional» threats – drug trafficking and afghans refugees. Pakistan is trying to manipulate the foreign policy interests of Afghanistan, using the threat of repatriation of refugees. Nevertheless, at the same time Islamabad needs more attention to internal political situation, terrorist threat and outside help in nuclear arms race. Consequently, much attention is paid to relations of Pakistan with USA and China as states «centres of power». These countries are started a process of the polarization of regional security system through the formation of alliances – Pakistan-China, IndiaUSA. Interregional level of security cooperation in South Asia is represented by Pakistan-China relations that have a common goal – India’s «containment». PakistaniUS cooperation also has a common background such as the fight with terrorism and involvement in the Afghan problem. US and China have a competition for global leadership and involve at the regional level in South Asia. Currently Pakistan has Beijing as a greater ally. However, Islamabad becomes an instrument of US-Chinese competition. Neither the US nor China is not helping to resolve Indo-Pakistani disputes, but maintaining the situation of «cold» war in region. As a result, a process of building a «warm» peace in South Asian regional security complex is impossible in the nearest future.