«Де-факто держави» на пострадянському просторі

Abstract

Дисертаційну роботу присвячено комплексному дослідженню «дефакто держав» на пострадянському просторі. Визначено основні наукові підходи до поняття, ознак і класифікації невизнаних державоподібних утворень. Охарактеризовані основні причини виникнення, етапи розвитку та сучасний стан «де-факто держав», їх відмінності від квазідержавних утворень на Сході України, які лише проголосили свою незалежність, але жодним чином її не підтверджують і не мають для цього етнічних, історичних, політичних чи економічних підстав. Охарактеризовано позицію світової спільноти щодо статусу «де-факто держав» і шляхів вирішення конфліктів навколо них. Доведено, що військова, економічна і дипломатична допомога Російської Федерації як держави-патрона є основою де-факто незалежності сепаратистських територій. Значна увага приділяється основним моделям розвитку подій навколо «де-факто держав» на пострадянському просторі: реінтеграція до материнської держави; включення території «де-факто держави» до складу держави-покровителя; досягнення міжнародного визнання суверенітету; збереження статус-кво. " Thesis provides a complex research of the "de facto states" in the postSoviet space. The specifics of the thesis subject necessitated the involvement of a wide range of sources in Ukrainian, Russian and English language to avoid a one-sided assessment of the events. The basic scientific approaches to the concept, features and classification of unrecognized entities are determined. "De facto state" is an organized political entity, which in the process of development has acquired the powers of local authorities, has received support from the population, and has the ability to ensure the fulfillment of state functions in the territory of a certain region, over which there is an effective control over a significant period of time. The main features of state actors are internal sovereignty, the lack of external legitimacy of sovereignty, the international right of another country to "reintegrate" the relevant territory. The main causes, stages of development and the current state of "de facto states" are characterized. The territories of these "de facto states" belong to the post-Soviet space and are traditionally perceived by the Russian political establishment as a zone of national interests and geostrategic influence of the Russian Federation. Although the military phase of these conflicts has already been discontinued, separatist territories are a source of danger in the regional system of international relations. Many economic, transport, political and energy projects cannot be implemented due to the existence of conflicts in Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. As a result of these conflicts, instability provides the basis for the international criminal gangs and illegal migration. Common features for these three state entities are their de facto sovereignty at the present stage, significant historical backgrounds, constant tensions and sharp transitions from the "frozen" phase to the phase of military confrontation, a significant impact of third parties (especially support of the Russian Federation). "De facto states" differ with the degree of their recognition. NagornoKarabakh and Transnistria are supported only by the Russian Federation. Any independent state of the world does not recognize them. Abkhazia and South Ossetia were recognized by Russia, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Nauru and Syriain. But it should be noted that the Western democratic community rejects this fact. Quasi-state entities in the east of Ukraine have only proclaimed their independence, but do not confirm it and do not have ethnic, historical, political or economic basis. The position of the world community regarding the status of "de facto states" and ways of solving conflicts around them are described. This study demonstrates that international organizations have accumulated positive experience of settling such kind of conflicts that is evidenced by the cessation of hostilities in the de-facto states and transformation these conflicts to frozen phase. On the other hand, the question of the status of such entities has not resolved, any conflict are not solved completely. It shouldn’t be ignored that each country has special interests on the postSoviet space. That’s why it can influence the decisions of the international organization. It is proved that military, economic and diplomatic assistance of the external patron is very important for separated territories. Much attention is paid to the ways of conflicts settlement around "de facto states" in the post-Soviet space. The author makes an attempt to predict the response of the world community to the potential variants of the problem and to determine the probability of four possible scenarios for separatist regions. The author proposes to focus on the following options: reintegration into the mother country; inclusion of the territory of a de facto state into another state; achieving international recognition as an independent state; status quo preservation. The author considers as the most likely preservation of the status quo, which can be observed since the mid-1990s. The least probable is the association of de facto states with the patron-state. The Russian Federation has no sufficient economic base and international support for such absorption at the present time. And partial recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia changed their legal status, but deprived of de facto sovereignty. The author assures that the scenario of full reintegration into the mother country is most likely for the new separatist entities on the Ukrainian territory. So-called "LNR" and "DNR" authorities failed to build any effective state mechanisms or get support from world powers. Therefore, the main task of the Ukrainian authorities is to prevent the freezing of the conflict at the present stage. The author assume that full reintegration of the separatist territories in the East of Ukraine to the mother country is possible in the event of preventing the freezing of the conflict.