Devising a method for determining the length of a series of artillery fire based on probability-analytical modeling and fuzzy multi-criterion evaluation

Abstract

This study investigates artillery fire control processes under conditions of uncertain disturbances when using the "shoot- and-scoot" tactic. The task addressed is to increase the efficiency of artillery fire and reduce the time for performing fire tasks by optimally choosing the number of shots in a series. To assess the efficiency of firing, the time for performing tasks, and the risk of hitting an artillery installation for different values of the length of the firing series, probabilistic-analytical modeling methods have been used. To select the best solution according to a set of contradictory criteria, a fuzzy logic apparatus was applied, which makes it possible to formalize the decision-making process under conditions of uncertainty. A method for determining the rational length of firing series has been devised, which involves the formation of a generalized criterion, the search for a set of local maxima, and their further evaluation using a fuzzy model. The proposed approach makes it possible to take into account the influence of random disturbances, in particular, a possible sudden increase in barrel wear during firing series. The results of computational experiments have confirmed the effectiveness of the proposed method. It was found that the firing efficiency increased by 11.6–20.8% compared to the fixed-length firing series approach, as well as the reduction in the time to complete firing tasks by up to 31.6%. In addition, in most cases, a decrease in the total time spent by installations at firing positions was observed, which indicates a decrease in the risk of damage by counter-battery means. The devised method could be applied in control systems for modern artillery installations to increase the effectiveness of their combat use under conditions of uncertainty.