Economic, legal, and geopolitical implications of the second war between Iran, Israel, and the United States: interpretations and scenarios based on multilayer theory in 2026

Abstract

The military conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with coordinated attacks by the United States and Israel on nuclear and infrastructure facilities on Iranian territory quickly escalated, within a matter of days, into a systemic crisis of unprecedented proportions that led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, this article aims to examine, from an integrative analytical perspective, the main economic, legal, and geopolitical repercussions of the armed conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States in 2026. Methodologically, the research is conducted within the hermeneutic tradition of Gadamer and critical geopolitics, tools combined in what is known as geopolitical hermeneutics. The results show that the closure of the strait produced a cascading systemic shock on energy markets, supply chains, and global food security, while also revealing a serious crisis in the effectiveness of international law. It is concluded that what this conflict has brought to light is not simply the possible transition toward a multipolar order, but the specific conditions under which that multipolarity is taking shape: fragmented, asymmetrical, and lacking an actor with the political will and sufficient legitimacy to uphold common rules.