Improving the Accuracy of Infectious Disease Forecasts Based on Comparing Neural Network Architectures

Abstract

This paper aims to improve the accuracy of infectious disease forecasting using machine learning methods. The main results of this work are an analysis of infectious diseases spread in Ukraine during the time span from December 2016 to January 2024 and a performance comparison of different neural network architectures in the scope of time series forecasting. The following steps were taken: analysis of current forecasting methods, selection of neural network architectures, dataset preprocessing, and model testing. The developed system can be an effective tool for rational management decisions to ensure the epidemiological well-being and biosecurity of the population.